Basketball Award Predictions

The 79th season of the National Basketball Association (NBA) is just around the corner and personally, I could not be more excited. 

There is so much parity within the NBA in its current form. I think in the 2010s it was pretty easy to guess which teams we were going to see in the finals; however, there hasn't been a repeat champion since the Golden State Warriors in 2017 & 2018. Since 2018, there have been 3 Eastern Conference teams to win the finals and 3 Western Conference teams to win the finals.

As for personal awards, I think this is the most talented era in the history of the sport. While Nikola Jokic has won the MVP award 3 times out of the last 4 years, we can't pretend that players like Luka Doncic, Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo haven't given him a run for his money. The 6th Man, DPOY, and MIP are always changing year to year. The Rookie of the Year award has gone to a different team every year since Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns went back to back in 2015 & 2016.

It's safe to say, the league in its current form is unpredictable. That's why I'm here to predict it.

Award & Championship Predictions:

In this section I'll be using Basketball Reference and Odds Shark to explain analysis of prediction and observe odds.

Most Valuable Player: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC) +550

    Runner-Up: Luka Doncic (DAL) +350

    Keep an Eye On: Anthony Edwards (MIN) +1300

Analysis: It's safe to say that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a bonafide superstar. The 26 year old, 2x All-Star, 2x All-NBA Guard has gone from trade piece to 2nd place in MVP voting. In addition to 2nd place in MVP, SGA came 12th in MIP, 3rd in CPOY, and 7th in DPOY. A career year for the Guard, Shai played a total of 75 games on 30.1 ppg, 5.5 trb, 6.2 ast splits with 2.0 steals and 0.9 blocks a game to round out the stat sheet. SGA served as the leader of the young Thunder team and fulfilled this role to perfection. Although Shai is playing with Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, who are both sure to take a big jump next year, I don't see his impact going anywhere but up.

- Luka Doncic has been in MVP consideration since he entered the league, but last season felt like it could've been his. On 33.9 ppg, 9.2 trb, and 9.8 ast splits, Luka looked unstoppable... and he was. He took his team to the finals where they came up short against the Boston Celtics, but Doncic was nothing short of incredible. Don't be surprised when he comes into the 2024-25 season with a fire under him to get the trophy case filled up.

- Anthony Edwards has made waves in the basketball world. His growth in just 4 years pro is nothing short of "Top 10 Player" stuff. Ant led the Timberwolves throughout the season on 25.9 ppg, 5.4 trb, and 5.1 ast all the way to the Conference Finals (a place they hadn't been for a long time). His performance on the Olympic Stage (12.8 ppg in 16.3 mpg) showed that Ant-Man isn't afraid to prove that he can stack up against the best of them. Minnesota is hungry for a finals appearance, and Edwards is the one to get them there.

Rookie of the Year: Alex Sarr (WAS) +1000

    Runner-Up: Zach Edey (MEM) +500

    Keep an Eye On: Reed Sheppard (HOU) +800

Analysis: I have to admit. I'm not the most reliable college basketball/prospect viewer. It's a place where I need to improve. So this prediction is a little more up in the air and less confident than the others; but, I think that's the general consensus for this year's rookie class. It was one of those years that didn't have a generational talent or a clear number 1 overall pick. The 2024 class has a lot of guys who are extremely talented at what they do. When I look at Alex Sarr I see a big man who is high-risk, high reward. There's some holes in his game, but if he puts in the work with NBA veterans, coaches, and trainers, he could be the best player out of this draft. The risk still stands of him not taking that jump, but it's clearly something the Wizards were willing to take a chance on.

- Zach Edey looks to be exactly what the Grizzlies need. A reliable big man who can hold his own and dominate in the paint. Putting him next to Jaren Jackson Jr. might just be a match made in heaven. JJJ has struggled to prove that he can be a dominate big in the paint. He can stretch the floor and play at a DPOY level, but his rebounding leaves much to be desired. With Zach Edey slotting into the Center position, JJJ can thrive a lot more naturally at the Power Forward. I think these two along with Ja Morant and Desmond Bane will all complement each other very nicely. It might take a couple months to hit its stride, but if this team can stay healthy I think we have a future contender out West.

- Reed Sheppard looked like a monster in the Summer League. A lot of people thought the Rockets would go with a Forward, as they seem to have more than enough talent at the Guard position, but they have to be happy with their pick. Sheppard seemed more than aware that he was going to be fighting for a position in this Rockets lineup that will likely be experimenting with different variations of itself this season. If I was Udoka, I'd absolutely slot in Sheppard as a 8th or 9th man and allow him to work his way up the rotation.

Defensive Play of the Year: Victor Wembanyama (SAS) -160

    Runner-Up: Anthony Davis (LAL) +2500

    Keep an Eye On: Rudy Gobert (MIN) +1200

Analysis: I'll just say it now. Victor Wembanyama was my pick for the 2024 Defensive Player of the Year. I mean no disrespect to the future Hall of Famer Rudy Gobert, but Wemby led the league with his 3.6 blocks per game as a ROOKIE! This number is only going to go up and if you think Wemby isn't gunning for this award, think again. When asked about contending for the DPOY he said "I know that [Gobert] has a very good chance of winning it this year, and it would be deserved. Let him win it now, because after that it's no longer his turn." The man is on a mission and it's be safe to stay out of his way. With Chris Paul at the helm of the offense, a little pressure is relieved of Wemby to orchestrate every single moment on the court. He now has the opportunity to hone in on where we thrives. 

- Anthony Davis is someone who you can never count out of this race. The Lakers need him to be the defensive anchor that he can be now more than ever. It's safe to say, while they won a championship in 2020, the LeBron James x Anthony Davis x Lakers collab has left most of us with a sour taste in our mouths. It's a team full of players that I want to see succeed, but for one reason or another they just can't. While he's never won the award, AD has seen the All-Defensive teams 5 times in his career, led the league in blocks 3 times, and his defensive rating of 104.2 sits at 8th among active players. Unless it's too late, AD still needs to prove that he can lead this Lakers team and winning the DPOY would be a great start.

-What else is there to say about a 4 time DPOY winner? As long as Rudy Gobert is in the National Basketball Association, he will be on Defensive Player of the Year watch. Plain and simple.

Most Improved Player: Jonathan Kuminga (GSW) +1000

    Runner-Up: Victor Wembanyama (SAS) +800

    Keep an Eye On: Evan Mobley (CLE) +1100

Analysis: The Golden State Warriors cleared up a lot of room this Summer. While they added players like Buddy Hield, De'Anthony Melton, and Kyle Anderson... I'm not convinced those guys completely make up for losing Klay Thompson and Chris Paul. What these moves did do is open up a starting Power Forward spot for Jonathan Kuminga. There's no doubt that the 21 year old forward has natural talent, but the Warriors are going to be calling on his number in a big way. He had a major jump in 2024 from 2023 averaging 16.1 ppg, 4.8 trb, and 2.2 ast but looking at the decline of Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, Golden State needs a number 2 to Chef Curry. I believe that will be Kuminga. I think he's ready to take that jump and prove that after Curry passes the torch, he can takeover this team and be the second star they need.

- Wemby, Wemby, Wemby... what are we gonna do here? It's clear that there seems to be a push for Victor Wembanyama to be the frontrunner for this award and personally, I don't like it. Is Wemby bound for a generational sophomore year? Yes. Was this generational talent who was picked first overall after years of hype build-up around him expected to be as good as he is now? Also YES! So why would we give the MIP to a guy who is clearly going to improve no matter what! I don't blame Ja Morant for setting this standard, but him taking home the award over Desmond Bane in 2022 may have sent us down a dangerous path of ignoring guys like Jimmy Butler, Victor Oladipo, and Pascal Siakam.

- It's interesting to have a player as good as Evan Mobley on the Most Improved Player list; however, there's no doubt he saw an "eye-test" decline his junior year. Mobley went from an All-Defensive, DPOY caliber guy to just a really good defender. Being a really good defender is great! But when a guy with as much potential as Evan Mobley comes around, you want to see him be the star that we all know he can be. I'm expecting to see major improvements on the offensive side of the court and hopefully he'll be right back up there with the best of them!

Sixth-Man of the Year: Josh Hart (NYK) +1000

    Runner-Up: Naz Reid (MIN) +650

    Keep an Eye On: Alex Caruso +1200

Analysis: I LOVE JOSH HART! This guy is a certified "eye-test" passer. When you look at the paper and see he's averaging 9.4 ppg, 8.3 trb, and 4.1 ast you might shrug it off. You'd be wrong to do so. I'm begging you to watch this guy play even a second of basketball. He is exactly the type of player that not only this Knicks team but ANY basketball team absolutely needs. He's a locker room guy, a hustler, an adapter, and fits into any scheme you put him in. The 2025 Knicks team have no shortage of talent with the acquisition of Mikal Bridges and a returning Julius Randle, but Josh Hart is the spark plug off the bench that any great team needs. He can score, he can lead a comeback, he can defend, and he can out-rebound any player on the court. There's not many guys in league who would be more than happy to go from a starting position to the 6th man, but Josh Hart is a winner and winners adapt.

- If you call me an idiot for not having Naz Reid as my number one choice, I'd agree with you. Reid has been slept on since he came into the league. He's always had a cult following of memes and jokes surrounding him, but last season he proved that they weren't jokes. He's the real deal. Minnesota is clearly a really well-built team and the front office investing in Naz Reid was a sign that they know what they're doing. He's a guy you can plug and play anytime, anywhere. His MIP Winning Campaign last season saw a career high of 13.5 ppg, 5.2 trb, 1.3 ast, 0.8 stl, and 41.4% from the three. These improvements show no sign of slowing down as Reid will likely be a key piece to this Minnesota team's success in the future.

- Alex Caruso was probably the only good thing about Chicago last year. This is another guy who has backed up his cult-like, meme-centered followers and developed into a certified bucket. At 29 years old, Caruso saw his ppg, trb, str, and blk numbers all improve as he appeared on one of the All-Defensive Teams for the second time and received a few DPOY nods. Now Caruso joins the Oklahoma City Thunder which is by far the most talented roster he's played with since the 2020 Lakers. In no way, shape, or form should Alex Caruso be one of your top 5 guys when it comes to scoring and facilitating the ball; however, him coming off your bench in clutch moments, valuable defensive possessions, and as a spark plug is where he will thrive beyond measure. The scheme is all there for him to slot right in and succeed, he's going to add a lot of value and leadership to a young team that's already on the cusp of greatness.

Coach of the Year: Tom Thibodeau (NYK) +850

    Runner-Up: Ime Udoka (HOU) +850

    Keep an Eye On: Jamahl Mosley (ORL) +1500

Analysis: Thibs has the team of his dreams. A bunch of guys who have chips on their shoulders. They hustle, play hard, and come in the next day ready to do it all over again. The addition of Mikal Bridges, a guy who hasn't missed a game since he entered the league, and the emergence of a Top 10 Play in Jalen Brunson looks to make the Knicks a huge threat out East. If Thibs can keep his guys healthy and keep Julius Randle happy now that he's not the star, this could be a championship year for New York.

- Ime Udoka really turned the Rockets around last season. The team was walking into the 2023-24 season following three consecutive years of 55+ lost games, and walked out a .500 team. This team went on an 11-game winning streak from March 8th to March 29th beating teams like the Kings, the Cavs, and the Thunder. Earlier in the season they had a short stint from November 1st to November 12th where they beat the Lakers and the Nuggets. It's safe to say Udoka, who played a large role in the success of the current Boston Celtics, came to Houston and changed the culture. He developed his players and found ways to lead this talented, young team to success. It's only going to improve from last year.

- Last year the Orlando Magic made their first playoff appearance in since 2020, had their first winning record since 2019, and had their first season with 47+ wins since 2011. This team is onto something special. It's easy to look at the Magic and point to players like Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs as the reason for success. While these players certainly have a major role in the team's greatness, Coach Jamahl Mosley, who has been the HC going on 5 years, has worked from the ground up to get the Magic back to playoff basketball. You have to give credit to a franchise that sticks with a coach through multiple losing records because now you have players like Banchero, Wagner, and Suggs who have developed under Mosley into the players we know and love. This team is itching to get into the higher tier of Eastern Conference teams and this might be their year to do it.

Champions: Boston Celtics

    Finals MVP: Jayson Tatum +550

        Eastern Conference FMVP: Jayson Tatum

    Runner-Ups: Oklahoma City Thunder +850

        Western Conference FMVP: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Analysis: This might be the most boring take of all-time, but I can't deny the greatness that is the Boston Celtics. I mean, just look at the roster: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White are all Top 10 in their positions. That's a starting lineup of players who are Top 10 at what they're there to do. Then you look at the support like: Al Horford, Xavier Tillman Sr., Lonnie Walker IV, Payton Pritchard, and Sam Hauser. These are role players that every other team is striving for right now, and the Celtics have them. It would simply be foolish to not pick this team as a clear and away favorite to repeat for the Larry OB.

Enjoy the NBA Season and Thanks for Sitting on the Sideline!

    - Zeke H. Bennett